FedEx Cuts Earnings Outlook Amidst Cratering China-US Trade

FedEx just delivered some disappointing news: a lowered revenue outlook. The global shipping giant reported another quarter of sluggish sales, primarily due to a dramatic drop in shipping volume between China and the United States. This downturn, which began sharply after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs in April 2025, persisted throughout the company’s fourth fiscal quarter (ending May 31st).

While the company reported a fourth-quarter revenue of $22.2 billion – roughly flat compared to the previous year – the details tell a different story. Earnings per share, though showing slight improvement (diluted EPS at $6.88, adjusted diluted EPS at $6.07), failed to impress investors. The real concern lies in the significantly lowered earnings guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2026.

FedEx now projects earnings per share between $3.40 and $4.00, a substantial drop from the previously anticipated $4.03 (excluding costs associated with ongoing business optimization and the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight). This downward revision clearly highlights the impact of weakened transpacific trade on FedEx’s bottom line and underscores the ongoing challenges facing global commerce amidst geopolitical uncertainty.

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