Good news (with a caveat) for Social Security recipients! A new estimate projects a 2.5 percent increase in payments for 2026, thanks to the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).

This updated forecast, released by The Senior Citizens League, reflects the latest federal inflation data. It represents a slight increase from the 2.4 percent predicted in May. Interestingly, this mirrors the 2.5 percent increase already seen in 2025 benefits for tens of millions of retirees.

However, the news isn’t entirely celebratory. Shannon Benton, director of The Senior Citizens League, expressed concern. She points to a potential disconnect between official government inflation figures and the actual inflation experienced by senior citizens. Benton stated that while the government reports rising prices, the reality for seniors is likely even more challenging. The implication is that even with a 2.5% increase, many seniors may still struggle to keep up with the rising cost of living.

This projected COLA highlights the ongoing debate about accurately measuring and addressing inflation’s impact on vulnerable populations, particularly America’s seniors who rely heavily on Social Security payments.